John McCormick:

John McCormick:

At 24 games in it was time for my review of the relegation prospects I set out at the beginning of the season but with game 25 only two days later  it made sense to wait.

You’ll remember my chosen three were

QPR – chosen because a promoted team is almost certain to go down and most often it has been the playoff winner.

Hull, on the basis that second season syndrome’s due and as two London teams have never been relegated in the same season QPR’s demise must mean Palace are safe.

Aston Villa, on the grounds of their being the only club to have been in the bottom three for each of the last three seasons without being relegated. – See more at: http://salutsunderland.com/2014/12/flatlining-safc-will-we-ever-head-upwards/#sthash.AvEaDeFs.dpuf

In addition, I had two wildcard  teams: Southampton, chosen because of the personnel changes and turbulence the club had experienced and West Brom, selected because of last season’s iffy form and the way they appointed their manager.

My chosen measure of progress was the rolling-point average of each club; in other words, the average points gained per game as the season moved forwards. My logic was and is that any club which managed a point per game would stay up. It’s not exact but as only four clubs have been relegated with 38 points or more since the turn of the century it’s a very useful target.

How, then, have my chosen clubs done? How have we done with them? And are there any other clubs that now need to be included? The answer to the last question is “Of course there are”. Southampton have been a revelation. They reached the magic 10 wins on Boxing Day, are now being spoken of as European Championship contenders and congratulations are in order. Leicester, who weren’t on my radar, have replaced them and Burnley are also strongly in contention as I write.

But let’s look at some figures. Here are the rolling point averages for my chosen club, plus newcomers, plus one or two others who have been around the bottom at some point since the start of the season, in order of current league position:

Game Leics Burnley QPR Villa Hull SAFC WBA Palace NUFC Soton
1 1.00 0.00 0.00 3.00 3.00 1.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
2 0.50 0.00 0.00 2.00 2.00 1.00 1.00 0.00 0.50 0.50
3 0.67 0.33 1.00 2.33 1.33 0.67 0.67 0.33 0.67 1.33
4 1.25 0.50 0.75 2.50 1.25 0.75 0.50 0.50 0.50 1.75
5 1.60 0.60 0.80 2.00 1.20 0.80 1.00 1.00 0.60 2.00
6 1.33 0.50 0.67 1.67 1.00 0.83 1.33 1.33 0.50 2.17
7 1.29 0.57 0.57 1.43 1.29 1.14 1.14 1.14 0.57 1.86
8 1.13 0.5 0.5 1.25 1.25 1 1.13 1.00 0.88 2
8 1.00 0.44 0.78 1.11 1.22 0.89 1.11 1.00 1.11 2.11
10 0.90 0.40 0.70 1.00 1.10 1.10 1.30 0.90 1.30 2.20
11 0.82 0.64 0.73 1.00 1.00 1.09 1.18 0.82 1.45 2.27
12 0.83 0.83 0.67 1.00 0.92 1.08 1.08 1.00 1.58 2.17
13 0.77 0.85 0.85 1.00 0.85 1.08 1.00 1.00 1.46 2.00
14 0.71 0.86 0.79 1.14 0.86 1.00 0.93 0.93 1.43 1.86
15 0.67 0.80 0.93 1.27 0.87 1.00 0.93 0.93 1.53 1.73
16 0.63 0.94 0.88 1.19 0.81 1.00 1.06 0.94 1.44 1.63
17 0.59 0.88 1.00 1.18 0.76 1.12 1.00 0.88 1.35 1.71
18 0.56 0.83 0.94 1.11 0.89 1.06 0.94 0.83 1.28 1.78
19 0.68 0.84 0.95 1.11 0.84 1.05 0.89 0.84 1.37 1.74
20 0.70 0.85 0.95 1.10 0.95 1.00 0.90 0.85 1.35 1.80
21 0.81 0.95 0.90 1.05 0.90 0.95 1.00 0.95 1.29 1.86
22 0.77 0.91 0.86 1.00 0.86 0.91 1.00 1.05 1.23 1.91
23 0.74 0.87 0.83 0.96 0.83 1.00 0.96 1.00 1.30 1.83
24 0.71 0.88 0.79 0.92 0.83 1.00 0.96 1.08 1.29 1.88
25 0.68 0.84 0.88 0.88 0.92 0.96 1.04 1.08 1.28 1.84

Plotting these figures as a graph makes for a complicated picture:

Rolling point averages of selected clubs, Feb 2015

Rolling point averages of selected clubs, Feb 2015

It’s not complicated as such, it’s just that there are so many clubs so close together. We can say that Southampton have settled and are safe, as are Newcastle, but what about the others? It’s impossible to tell.

Trendlines can simplify the picture at the risk of sometimes being inaccurate. For what they are worth, here they are:

Rolling points trendlines, Feb 2015

Rolling points trendlines, Feb 2015

As far as I’m concerned it’s still impossible to tell although Palace and WBA, with new managers, should be safe. Leicester, I think, won’t recover from being bottom at Christmas. We did, and WBA, but I can’t see it happening again. Hull might just escape second season syndrome but I expect them to falter once more on their path to safety. QPR, despite Tuesday, look to not have it while Burnley might well be battling in vain. Villa, however, might provide a lifeline for one of them, as might we. It’s too close to call at the moment.

I’ll revisit in six or seven games, depending on how the fixtures unravel. Until then, fasten your seat belts and adopt the brace position.


Join the Salut! Sunderland Facebook group – click anywhere along this line



And follow us on Twitter: @salutsunderland … click along this line

Click anywhere on this sentence for a glance at the home page – and highlights of all the most recent articles …

Jake flags the new feature allowing you to have your say on topic or off
Jake flags the new feature allowing you to have your say on topic or off

Fancy leaving a comment? Not sure what you have to say fits this post? Go to the made-for-purpose feature – http://salutsunderland.com/2013/07/salut-sunderland-the-way-it-is/ – and say it there

Tags: , , , , ,

Salut! Sunderland is written, illustrated and edited by - and principally for - supporters of Sunderland AFC. The site aims to be sufficiently literate and entertaining to appeal to people who do not follow SAFC but enjoy good football writing.

One Response to “Leicester, Burnley, QPR, Villa, Hull, WBA, Palace and SAFC: all flatlining” Subscribe

  1. ianoklahoma February 14, 2015 at 3:24 am #

    ????

Leave a Reply

Simon Grayson, Steve Bruce, Ahmed Elmohamady, David Meyler, Paul McShane: a Hull of a connection

From_Our_Archives_featured _image

John McCormick writes Did we get rid of Simon Grayson too early? There are some stats that say we could […]

Sunderland’s retained list: Who’s yet to take a walk? Who’s yet to arrive at our doors?

Salut Banner4(featured image)

We know there’s a lot of rebuilding to do. We know we have some expensive players on our books who […]

Salut! Sunderland presents: The best goal I ever scored/never scored

Whimsy(featured image)

John McCormick writes: It was M Salut himself who got me going, but only after Malcolm had chipped in with […]

Page generated in 0.959 seconds. Stats plugin by www.blog.ca